Variants ‘Set To Determine Course Of Pandemic’

The length and direction of the Coronavirus pandemic is set to be determined by the new variants that arise and the effectiveness of the life sciences research community in coming up with vaccines to defeat them, an infectious diseases expert has said.

Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota Dr Michael Osterholm said the US faces a “whole new ball game” because if the new variants that have emerged, with some having the potential to reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.

Speaking to CBS News, he said: “We are, I think for the moment, in the eye of a hurricane with regard to the good news, the vaccine’s coming.”

However, he added, a “big challenge” now is the B117 variant coming from Europe. This version of the virus emerged in Kent last September and has already spread to many countries.

This is not, of course, the only variant of concern, with several others having emerged, including worrying strains from South Africa and Brazil that appear more resistant to vaccines.

“It’s all going to be about the variants and the vaccine, and that will determine where we’re going to be next year, the year after, and the year after that,” Dr Osterholm remarked.

This suggests life science consulting services could be much in demand over not just the months to come, but several years.

Part of the problem is the potential for more variants to arise in countries that are either failing to curb the spread with social distancing measures and other restrictions, or because low numbers are being vaccinated.

The US is expected to join the UK in being one of the first to vaccinate all willing adults, with president Joe Biden pledging this week to offer every adult a jab by May 1^st. Britain is expecting to do so by late July.

However, the situation is not so healthy elsewhere. Continental Europe is lagging well behind with vaccinations, with the majority seeing an increase in cases at present and central Europe suffering a notable surge. The Kent variant is one major factor alongside the slow rate of immunisation, with some countries, such as France, suffering from high levels of vaccine scepticism.

The risk of more variants emerging from elsewhere remains high, with Brazil – already identified as producing two new variants of concern – currently suffering a severe surge in infections that threatens to overwhelm health services.

While one variant has emerged in South Africa, the country is at least receiving vaccines and thanks to the global Coxax system, these are now making their way to other nations across the continent. But Tanzania’s Covid-sceptic president John Magafuli – who has been allegedly suffering from the virus himself – has denied the ongoing presence of the virus in his country and has not signed up to Covax.

The danger that some countries may be beset by public attitudes, sceptical politicians or slow vaccination programmes that give the virus scope for new mutations may be the biggest threat to global health. It may indeed be that finding vaccines to beat these new variants will be the decisive factor in ending the pandemic sooner rather than later.