Daily Covid Cases Top 50,000 As Vaccinations Slow

The number of positive Covid-19 tests has passed 50,000 a day for the first time since January, while the number of daily first doses continues to bump along at a fairly low level.

A figure of 51,870 cases was recorded on Friday (July 16^th), with 717 people being admitted to hospital and 49 deaths.

While the mortality rate from Covid remains low – mainly because it is largely unvaccinated young people who are catching it – the number getting their first jab has slowed considerably from previous months, when hundreds of thousands a day would be getting their inoculation.

The latest daily figures showed 61,681 first jabs, up on previous days but still leaving 12.4 per cent of the adult population unvaccinated. This may suggest vaccine hesitancy or outright hostility has left a proportion of the population not taking the jab when they could have done so.

While it is likely almost all of the 87.6 per cent who have had the vaccine so far will get the second jab, this may not quite provide the level of herd immunity needed to curb the virus in the UK.

Part of the reason is the geographically uneven nature of vaccinations. Newly available map data has shown that many urban areas have much lower vaccination rates than the average. For example, fewer than 70 per cent have had their first jab in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Nottingham and Coventry.

In London, the situation is even worse, with five boroughs recording first vaccination rates below 60 per cent, the worst being Westminster at 55.3 per cent.

Part of the reason may be generally younger populations in major cities, but a particular concern has been the low take-up among black and Asian ethnic minority groups. This could lead to significant pockets of persistent infection as the virus will spread more easily in some areas.

This is evident when different city districts are compared. For example, the lowest rates in Manchester are in central and inner south parts of the city, which have large student and minority ethnic populations. A similar pattern can be seen in Birmingham.

More rural areas tend to have much higher areas of inoculation, although only one English district – Eden – has hit 90 per cent.

The Scottish situation is more promising, with over 90 per cent having had a first jab in rural counties and the rate at over 80 per cent in the four largest cities – Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee.

With the UK about to open up again, metro mayors have been insisting that people continue using face masks on public transport and many retailers have taken the same line with people coming into their stores.

With the third wave now expected to peak in early August before declining again, hopes for herd immunity may depend in part on a very low re-infection rate. While catching Covid once does not offer lifelong immunity in the way infections like measles do, it may be that it does offer immunity, at least for some time, for most.

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